Overview

• The Pulso Brasil/Ipespe survey, fielded Sept. 19–22 with 2,500 respondents, shows government approval at 50% versus 48% disapproval, the first numerical lead this year but within a technical tie.
• Approval of the Supreme Federal Court reached 46% with 44% disapproval, a shift the institute associates with the Sept. 11 ruling that convicted Jair Bolsonaro and seven allies.
• The Primeira Turma sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months for attempted coup and other crimes, a high-profile decision widely noted in the polling analysis.
• Congressional ratings remain poor, with the Câmara at 18% approval and 70% disapproval, while the Senate stands at 26% approval and 59% disapproval after a slight improvement.
• Ipespe highlights a less hostile media environment and the government’s reaction to U.S. tariff measures as contributors to the gains, noting the poll did not capture Sept. 21 protests or UN speeches.