Overview

• Quaest’s Oct. 2–5 survey of 2,004 people finds 48% approving and 49% disapproving of Lula’s government, the first technical tie since January 2025 (±2 percentage points).
• Approval has risen from 40% in May to 48% now as disapproval fell from 57% to 49% across the same period, continuing a five‑month recovery trend.
• Support remains segmented: approval reaches 67% among Bolsa Família beneficiaries and 54% among Catholics, while evangelicals register 63% disapproval and 34% approval.
• Women now approve 52% to 45%, voters aged 35–59 flip to 51% approval versus 46% disapproval, and backing among those earning above five minimum wages rises to 45% though 52% still disapprove.
• Issue testing shows 49% think Lula emerged stronger from his encounter with Trump at the UN, and 79% favor exempting income up to R$5,000 from income tax.