Lula’s 2026 Lead Narrows in New Quaest Poll, With Bolsonaro in Technical Tie in Runoff

Overview

• Lula leads every first-round scenario with 31%–39% and would top all tested opponents in runoffs, but his margins shrank versus October across nearly all matchups.
• Against the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro, the simulated runoff is 42% to 39% within a ±2-point margin of error, and the first-round test shows 32% to 27% for Lula.
• Government approval registered 47% approval and 50% disapproval, a stall that coverage links to the high-lethality Rio police operation and Lula’s Jakarta comments on traffickers.
• Voters increasingly signal a desire for alternatives, with 24% preferring a winner tied to neither Lula nor Bolsonaro and 17% wanting an outsider; 59% say Lula should not run again and 67% say Bolsonaro should back another name.
• Rejection remains elevated: Eduardo Bolsonaro is rejected by 67%, Michelle Bolsonaro by 61%, Jair Bolsonaro by 60% and Lula by 53%, while spontaneous indecision rose to 72%.