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Lula Wins Fourth Term After Stunning Runoff Comeback

A late campaign surge gave Lula a narrow victory but he now faces a right-leaning Congress and legal challenges to the result.

Overview

  • Brazil’s electoral court certified Lula’s victory, showing roughly 51.75% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.25% in the runoff that concluded on Sunday, Oct. 25.
  • The result overturned a first-round deficit after Lula’s campaign mobilised young and previously absent voters and reportedly added about 10 million net votes between rounds.
  • A last-minute Supreme Court order extended voting by two hours because of transport and weather problems, a move that delayed counts and has become a central point in Bolsonaro’s calls to annul the result.
  • Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede and has sought legal challenges, but experts say his case is weakened by the fact his campaign also requested the voting extension.
  • Lula will take office with a hostile, conservative-dominated Congress that could block his agenda, constrain judicial appointments, and shape how his promises on welfare, crime and the Amazon are implemented.