Lula Widens Lead as Flávio Bolsonaro’s Support Erodes

Overview

• June polling from multiple institutes showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in first- and second-round matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro across repeated nationwide surveys.
• Flávio Bolsonaro’s numbers have softened after disclosures linking him to banker Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master, a development that polling firms and news outlets say has damaged his presidential bid.
• A public split with Michelle Bolsonaro, who posted a video saying she will not join his campaign, has added a political and personal strain on Flávio’s support within the right-leaning voter bloc.
• Federal Police operations that included searches mentioning Senator Jaques Wagner have kept legal probes in voters’ view and are now a direct question in new public-opinion work.
• A newly registered Meio/Ideia survey will test voter reactions to the Vorcaro/Banco Master revelations, the Michelle–Flávio dispute, and recent federal searches, reflecting an intensified effort to measure how these events reshape preferences.