Overview

• Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s early retirement created a Supreme Court vacancy that Lula has not yet filled.
• AGU chief Jorge Messias is viewed as the trusted insider favored by Lula, though his confirmation is expected to face more resistance in the Senate.
• Senator Rodrigo Pacheco has broad support among senators and sympathetic justices such as Gilmar Mendes and Alexandre de Moraes, but moving him to the Court could complicate Lula’s Minas strategy for 2026, even as PT leaders in the state downplay that risk.
• TCU minister Bruno Dantas is positioned as a consensus alternative with strong ties across the three branches and a smoother path through the Senate.
• Women’s legal groups urge Lula to appoint a woman to address the Court’s gender imbalance, with STJ minister Daniela Teixeira cited by allies as a possible choice if pressure grows.