Overview
- Lula won the tightly contested runoff with 51.8% of the vote versus 48.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro and will be sworn in on January 1, 2027.
- He inherits strained public finances with public debt near 83% of GDP, slow growth, a large fiscal deficit, about 5% annual inflation and high interest rates, and investors pushed the real sharply lower after the result.
- Public security is an immediate priority because organized crime and militias strengthened in recent years and Lula must restore state authority and dismantle criminal networks to reduce violence.
- The campaign and its aftermath saw judicial interventions that increased polarization, including actions linked to Judge Alexandre Moraes, while Flávio Bolsonaro left for Miami during investigations and publicly disputed the outcome.
- Lula intends a hedged foreign policy that preserves close economic links with China, reopens regional forums such as UNASUR and CELAC and uses BRICS and the G20 to press global reforms, but a conservative Congress and market scrutiny will limit his room for big new spending.