Overview
- Paraná Pesquisas' poll released July 2 shows Eduardo Paes with just over 50% in first‑round scenarios in Rio de Janeiro, making a first‑round victory plausible and reshaping the state's role in national coalitions.
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro sent a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative asking that proposed tariffs on Brazilian products be postponed until after the 2026 vote, a move that has become a live political flashpoint and that he will discuss at USTR hearings in Washington next week.
- President Lula publicly denounced the letter as an act against national interests and accelerated a series of inaugurations, program launches and investment announcements—many focused in the Northeast—before the July 4 electoral blackout.
- State contests show wider volatility: an Instituto França poll places Celina Leão ahead in the Distrito Federal, while Ceará remains competitive with Lula publicly urging Governor Elmano de Freitas to keep a high‑road campaign despite polls showing him trailing Ciro Gomes.
- Key next steps to watch are the early July USTR hearings and the U.S. decision expected in mid‑July, which may further politicize foreign policy in Brazil and influence voter sentiment and coalition building in pivotal state races.