Overview
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election, a result portrayed by coverage as preventing a return to the Bolsonaro-era approach that loosened enforcement and drove large forest losses.
- Since Lula returned to office in 2023, stricter enforcement and policy shifts cut Amazon forest loss to its lowest measured level since 1988, with some analyses saying at least 20,000 square kilometres were spared versus a continuation of prior policies.
- The Netherlands pledged roughly €500 million to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a financing mechanism designed to pay tropical countries for keeping forests standing, with payments envisaged to start around 2027.
- Major risks remain: Lula’s support for new offshore oil drilling, continued influence of the agribusiness lobby and right-wing forces in Congress, and budgetary and market pressures make his 2030 pledge to end deforestation difficult to guarantee.
- European demand for a handful of commodities—especially beef and soy—drives much EU-linked Amazon loss, so changes in trade, consumer choices and verified international finance are central to whether Brazil’s short-term gains become lasting protection.