Overview

• MP 1,303 advanced by 13–12 in a congressional committee and now faces a high‑risk plenary vote on its final day of validity, with the government seeking approval in both the Chamber and the Senate.
• Concessions kept LCI/LCA exemptions and dropped a higher tax on betting, cutting the projected 2026 revenue to roughly R$17 billion, with leaders also citing about R$15 billion in spending cuts tied to the package.
• The Planalto mounted a vote‑whipping offensive focused on Republicanos and wavering Centrão blocs, with allies weighing reallocation of federal posts to discourage defections and citing recent changes such as a Codevasf superintendency shift in Paraíba.
• Government figures accused São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and PP leaders of mobilizing against the text for electoral calculus, which Tarcísio denied, while PP chief Ciro Nogueira openly worked to defeat the measure on tax grounds.
• Tourism Minister Celso Sabino (União Brasil) and Sports Minister André Fufuca (PP) said they will remain in Lula’s cabinet, prompting party sanctions that suspended Sabino from União activities and stripped Fufuca of PP roles and his state command as expulsion processes advance.