Overview

• MP 1303 cleared a joint committee by 13–12 but must pass the Chamber and Senate by 23:59 on Wednesday to avoid expiring, with government allies warning of a real risk of defeat.
• Lula held an emergency strategy lunch with key ministers and congressional leaders and intensified personal outreach to lawmakers, while deputies also reported calls from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who denies lobbying.
• The proposal targets roughly R$17 billion in 2026 after concessions that kept LCI and LCA exempt and dropped a higher tax on betting platforms, with a bet repatriation program added and some estimates pointing to lower yields versus the original draft.
• Relator Carlos Zarattini says the vote became an electoral battle and accuses Tarcísio, PP chief Ciro Nogueira and União Brasil’s Antonio Rueda of working to sink the text, as the government signals it may reallocate posts to loyalists.
• Coalition strains escalated as União Brasil suspended Tourism Minister Celso Sabino, intervened in his Pará directory and opened a 60‑day disciplinary process, while the PP stripped Sports Minister André Fufuca of party roles; both say they will stay in Lula’s cabinet.