Overview
- Flavio Bolsonaro won roughly 47 percent of the vote in the Oct. 4 first round while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took about 45 percent, leaving Lula about 2.2 million votes behind ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff.
- Lula’s team met in Brasilia to rebrand and has adopted an internal “fear” strategy that warns voters a Bolsonaro victory could threaten popular social programs.
- The campaign has added a more aggressive strategist to the national team, is building a network of left-leaning influencers for social media, and named Paulo Okamoto to lead outreach efforts.
- Lula’s path back depends on winning voters who backed minor candidates and persuading roughly 33 million registered non-voters plus more than 9 million who chose other candidates in the first round.
- The Banco Master scandal and related probes into figures connected to both sides continue to shape voter perceptions and raise legal and political risks for Bolsonaro allies while conservative gains in Congress could limit Lula’s governing agenda.