Overview

• MP 1303, the government’s post‑IOF revenue plan, squeaked through a joint committee 13–12 and must still pass the Chamber and the Senate today or it will lapse.
• The Planalto held an emergency strategy meeting with ministers Fernando Haddad, Gleisi Hoffmann and Rui Costa and government leaders, while courting Republicanos chief Marcos Pereira vote by vote.
• To secure support, the text dropped a higher tax on betting platforms and preserved LCI/LCA exemptions, trimming projected receipts to roughly R$17 billion from earlier, higher estimates.
• Government allies accuse São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas and leaders of PP and União Brasil of working to sink the measure for electoral reasons, an allegation Tarcísio denies as the Centrão remains split.
• Amid talk of reevaluating Centrão-held posts—already seen in a Codevasf-PB reshuffle—PT leaders warn of fiscal damage if the MP fails, while some in the government say fallback executive steps could be used.