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1h ago

Lula Leads New Quaest Polls as Flávio Bolsonaro Emerges as Main Challenger

Fresh surveys show Lula ahead in every runoff, with Tarcísio the tightest matchup and Flávio’s gains reliant on fewer right‑wing rivals.

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Zema descarta possibilidade de ser vice na chapa de Flávio Bolsonaro e diz que manterá sua pré-candidatura ao Planalto.
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Overview

  • Genial/Quaest (fielded Jan. 8–11) finds Lula beating all tested opponents in a second round, 44%–39% versus Tarcísio de Freitas and 45%–38% versus Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • In first‑round scenarios, Lula ranges from 35% to 40% while Flávio varies from 23% to 32%, peaking when other right‑wing names are excluded; a likely configuration shows Lula 35%, Flávio 26% and Ratinho Jr. 9%.
  • Tarcísio posts 27% when Flávio is out and 14% when both run, underscoring how the right’s vote share shifts with the field composition.
  • Rejection remains high for the frontrunners, with 54% saying they would not vote for Lula and 55% for Flávio, reinforcing the importance of independents and undecideds.
  • Perceptions are shifting: 56% believe Lula would defeat a Bolsonaro‑family candidate, resistance to Flávio has eased since December, and 54% now think he will carry his pre‑candidacy through to Election Day.