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1h ago

Lula Leads New 2026 Polls as Flávio Bolsonaro Rises and Tarcísio Narrows Runoff Gap

Fresh Genial/Quaest results highlight Lula’s advantage, with high rejection and a tighter margin versus Tarcísio pointing to a more competitive runoff.

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Zema descarta possibilidade de ser vice na chapa de Flávio Bolsonaro e diz que manterá sua pré-candidatura ao Planalto.
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Overview

  • Genial/Quaest’s first poll of the year shows Lula ahead in all first- and second-round scenarios, with a 5-point edge over Tarcísio de Freitas (44% to 39%) and a 7-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (45% to 38%).
  • In first-round simulations, Lula ranges from 35% to 40% while Flávio consolidates as the main opponent, reaching as high as 32% when fewer right-wing names are tested.
  • Quaest’s director says Flávio’s advance draws from both bolsonaristas and the non-bolsonarista right; his rejection fell from 60% to 55% as Lula’s held at 54%.
  • A separate Meio/Ideia survey finds Lula leading but with the highest individual rejection (40.8% ‘would never vote’), and it also shows Tarcísio as the most competitive opponent in a potential runoff.
  • Sentiment indicators from Quaest show 46% fear a Bolsonaro-family return to power versus 40% who fear Lula’s continuity, and Romeu Zema publicly ruled out a vice slot to maintain his own pre-candidacy.