Overview

• Lula polls at roughly 35%–43% in first‑round tests and defeats every rival in second‑round simulations, with leads from 9 points over Ciro Gomes to 23 over Eduardo Leite and 12 over Tarcísio de Freitas.
• Government approval and disapproval are statistically tied at 48% vs 49% in the latest reading, marking the first technical tie since January after steady improvement since May.
• Most respondents say Lula should not seek re‑election in 2026 (56%), while 42% favor a bid; 76% prefer that Jair Bolsonaro support another candidate, and 18% want him to run.
• Rejection is highest for bolsonarista figures — Eduardo Bolsonaro at 68%, Jair Bolsonaro at 63% and Michelle Bolsonaro at 61% — alongside large undecided or blank shares that point to volatility.
• The Genial/Quaest poll interviewed 2,004 voters face to face from Oct. 2–5 with a ±2 p.p. margin of error; a separate Paraná Pesquisas survey in Minas Gerais also shows Lula leading locally (36.5% to 31.5% over Bolsonaro in a stimulated scenario).