Lula Leads 2026 Race as New Poll Shows Highest Rejection

Overview

• The Meio/Ideia survey, conducted Jan. 8–12 by phone with 2,000 voters, carries a ±2.2 p.p. margin of error and is registered at the TSE (BR-06731/2026).
• Lula tops every first-round scenario; in the matchup that includes Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula has 40.2% versus 32.7% for the São Paulo governor.
• Rejection is led by Lula at 40.8%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 30% and Michelle Bolsonaro at 26.1%, with Tarcísio at 16.2%.
• In simulated runoffs, Lula holds 46.2% to 36% over Flávio Bolsonaro and 46% to 39% over Michelle Bolsonaro.
• The tightest head-to-head shows Lula at 44.4% and Tarcísio at 42.1%, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.