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1h ago

Lula Holds Lead in New 2026 Poll as Right Fractures Persist

New Genial/Quaest data underscores a unified lead for Lula despite a fragmented opposition.

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Zema descarta possibilidade de ser vice na chapa de Flávio Bolsonaro e diz que manterá sua pré-candidatura ao Planalto.
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Overview

  • The first January Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula ahead in every tested runoff, by 44%–39% against Tarcísio de Freitas and 45%–38% against Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • In seven first‑round scenarios, Lula registers 35%–40% while Flávio Bolsonaro ranges from 23% to 32%, consolidating second place when he is included.
  • The survey interviewed 2,004 voters in person from January 8–11 and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
  • Despite Flávio’s recent gains, 46% of respondents say they fear a Bolsonaro family return to the presidency versus 40% who fear Lula’s continuation.
  • Internal tensions on the right continue, with Michelle Bolsonaro reposting a Tarcísio video critical of Lula and Romeu Zema rejecting a vice slot to maintain his own pre‑candidacy.