Overview

• Nationwide Genial/Quaest polling conducted Oct. 2–5 (2,004 interviews, ±2 points) finds 48% approval and 49% disapproval of Lula’s government, continuing a recovery since May.
• In voting-intention tests, Lula leads all first-round scenarios with 35%–43% and beats every opponent in second-round simulations, widening his margin over Tarcísio de Freitas to 45%–33%.
• The survey reports that 56% say Lula should not seek re-election in 2026, and 76% want Jair Bolsonaro to back another candidate rather than run.
• Rejection is highest for Eduardo Bolsonaro at 68%, followed by Jair Bolsonaro at 63% and Lula at 51%, with Lula’s rejection down from a 57% peak in May.
• Support rose among women, voters aged 35–59 and higher earners, slipped among those 60+ during the INSS inquiry, and a Minas Gerais poll also shows Lula ahead while undecided and blank responses remain sizable.