Lula Enters 2026 With Higher Approval but Faces Security and Economic Strains

Overview

• Datafolha shows 32% rating the government good or excellent in December, up from 24% in February and higher than the level at the start of 2006.
• Polling places Lula ahead for the 2026 race as the opposition has yet to rally around a single alternative.
• Security has moved to the forefront, with 38% naming violence the top problem, Lula’s security package stalling in Congress in 2025, and polls backing a Rio operation that left 121 dead despite his criticism.
• Food inflation eased to 3.88% over 12 months on a record harvest, but high interest rates, fiscal pressures and rising taxation keep growth prospects uncertain, with analysts expecting rate cuts from February.
• Experts say app drivers, delivery workers and other informal entrepreneurs form a pivotal, hard-to-reach voting bloc likely to decide narrow margins.