Overview
- Campaign officials are privately discussing whether President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva should avoid first‑round debates and sabatinas, a debate that surfaced Tuesday after Real Time Big Data published fresh polls.
- The Real Time Big Data survey of 2,000 voters found Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in first‑round intentions and showed Ronaldo Caiado beating Lula 44% to 43% in one second‑round simulation.
- The poll also found high voter volatility, including that 67% of Flávio Bolsonaro’s supporters would consider switching their vote to block Lula, and that Caiado is the most cited alternate choice.
- Other pre‑candidates including Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema have confirmed attendance at upcoming events, notably the G4 Educação/O Antagonista sabatina on August 4, which is the first post‑homologation forum.
- Campaign strategists say skipping forums could reduce the risk of damaging live moments but would hand rivals more TV time and fuel a narrative that Lula is avoiding direct confrontation amid high rejection rates and fresh questions about age and performance.