Lula and Flávio Enter First‑Round Vote Technically Tied

Overview

• National polls released on the eve of the vote show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially tied within margins of error in Quaest and Datafolha surveys.
• State-level aggregations find each candidate leading in 12 states but show Flávio’s leads concentrated in more populous states that together hold a larger share of voters.
• Both campaigns describe the contest as balanced and say voter abstention will be decisive for first-round outcomes, with turnout patterns likely to favor one side or force a runoff.
• Projections built from the same eve-of-vote polls indicate the PL could markedly grow its Senate bancada next year, potentially increasing its leverage over congressional oversight and impeachment powers.
• Investigations by the Federal Police into Flávio’s role as an interlocutor for Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro in the ‘Dark Horse’ financing remain a live controversy but have not reversed his polling momentum.