Overview
- President Trump’s administration discreetly encouraged the release following Vice Foreign Minister Christopher W. Smith’s visit, signaling potential sanction relief on Belarus’s potash exports.
- Brussels and exiled opposition leaders warn that US pressure on Lithuania and Latvia to grant Belarus port access threatens EU sanctions unity.
- Exiled figures including Svetlana Tichanowskaja urge Western partners not to reward Lukashenko without systemic political reforms.
- The regime has stepped up arrests of 2020 protest participants even after the high-profile pardon.
- Analysts say Lukashenko is positioning Belarus as more open than Russia to boost its diplomatic leverage and its appeal as a mediator in the Ukraine war.