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Lukashenko Frees Opposition Leader as Crackdown Intensifies

The move is seen as a strategic bid for US sanction relief that belies a recent intensification of domestic crackdowns.

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Overview

  • President Trump’s administration discreetly encouraged the release following Vice Foreign Minister Christopher W. Smith’s visit, signaling potential sanction relief on Belarus’s potash exports.
  • Brussels and exiled opposition leaders warn that US pressure on Lithuania and Latvia to grant Belarus port access threatens EU sanctions unity.
  • Exiled figures including Svetlana Tichanowskaja urge Western partners not to reward Lukashenko without systemic political reforms.
  • The regime has stepped up arrests of 2020 protest participants even after the high-profile pardon.
  • Analysts say Lukashenko is positioning Belarus as more open than Russia to boost its diplomatic leverage and its appeal as a mediator in the Ukraine war.