Overview
- One week before the Oct. 4 municipal vote, Ipsos and Datum put Rafael López Aliaga ahead in Lima with about 25–30% of support in direct and simulated-ballot measures.
- Datum’s 23–25 September simulacro of 600 interviews gives Renovación Popular 29.6% of valid votes while placing Carlos Bruce at about 17.2% and Francis Allison at 13%.
- Ipsos’s 24–25 September poll records López Aliaga at 25% in direct intention and up to 30% in a simulated ballot, with Bruce and Allison trailing in second and third place.
- Commentators and opponents have renewed constitutional concerns about López Aliaga’s eligibility because he lists himself as teniente alcalde/primer regidor, a claim he says avoids a re‑election ban and that would raise succession and enforcement questions if his ticket wins.
- Polls vary by method and by district within Lima, and experts say a divided opposition plus blank votes and regional differences make the final outcome and governance implications uncertain on election day.