Overview
- An Ipsos survey conducted Aug. 5–6 for Perú21 shows Rafael López Aliaga leading Lima voting intentions at 21 percent after Luis Rubio withdrew his candidacy, with Carlos Bruce at 13 percent and Francis Allison at 9 percent.
- Rubio’s resignation moved López Aliaga from first regidor on the Renovación Popular list into a position that, under current practice, would allow him to assume the mayoralty if his list wins the Oct. 4 municipal vote.
- The poll records widespread concern about the tactic: 40 percent of respondents called the maneuver 'not serious,' 28 percent called it illegal and 22 percent said it fits the law, while 21 percent remain undecided and 4 percent plan blank or spoiled ballots.
- Methodological limits temper the finding: the face‑to‑face survey of 502 people across 33 Lima districts has a ±4.4 percent margin of error at 95 percent confidence, leaving the lead within reach of normal sampling variation.
- Election lawyers and the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones are now expected to interpret replacement rules, and the episode highlights debates over loopholes on immediate re‑election and how list substitutions can change races before October.