Overview
- Australia accounted for about 43% of Pacific official development finance in 2023, with expanded infrastructure lending expected to sustain its lead as other donors retrench.
- Total development finance fell by roughly 16% in 2023, and Lowy forecasts funding will largely plateau through 2028.
- By 2028, Lowy projects Australia will likely deliver more than double the combined support of Japan, New Zealand, the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
- China provided about $230 million in 2023 and has shifted from large loan‑financed projects to grants and smaller, locally targeted initiatives.
- Pacific defence ministers agreed to advance a regional response group, with New Zealand to command a year‑round headquarters for two years starting mid‑2026.