Overview

• SMN reports Tropical Storm Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane west-southwest of Baja California Sur, with its circulation interacting with the Mexican monsoon and an upper-level trough to drive very heavy to intense rainfall in the northwest and west.
• Official guidance calls for 75–150 mm in Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango and Sinaloa, 50–75 mm in states from Baja California to Veracruz and the Pacific coast, and 25–50 mm in areas including Mexico City.
• Frontal System No. 1 remains stationary over the northeast, producing 40–60 km/h gusts and a risk of strong showers in Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas; Monterrey expects highs near 34–35°C with potential for intense local storms late Wednesday into early Thursday.
• SMN warns of urban flooding, landslides, fast-moving runoff capable of sweeping vehicles, rising rivers and streams, reduced visibility for motorists, and isolated wind damage such as downed trees and signage.
• In central Mexico, the Valley of Mexico forecast includes afternoon thunderstorms with possible hail and highs near 22–24°C, while in Argentina the SMN projects a brief midweek lull in Buenos Aires before a sharper cold pulse with a Friday minimum near 5–6°C.