Overview

• ECMWF ensembles raise the likelihood of above‑normal October rainfall across many areas, with Germany frequently cited in the outlooks.
• The U.S. CFS model shows a similar wet signal, and some analyses lean toward temperatures running about 1 to 1.5 degrees above the long‑term average.
• These month‑ahead indications come from ensemble climate trends rather than day‑to‑day forecasts, so outcomes remain uncertain despite the strong signal.
• Model performance has varied this year, with ECMWF overstating summer heat while CFS better captured warm and wet phases, which tempers confidence in the October guidance.
• If the trend verifies, Central Europe could see more rainy days with occasional storms, longer wet spells and localized flooding, offering soil recharge but fewer classic ‘golden October’ days.