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5h ago

London Leads Sharp Fall in Primary Pupils as EPI Forecasts Steeper Declines and Closure Risks

The thinktank says fewer births are only part of the story, with more families leaving London or the state sector accelerating the slide.

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Brexit, the falling birthrate and the soaring cost of living are said to be factors in the decrease of pupil numbers

Overview

  • Nine of the ten biggest five-year drops are in London, led by Westminster (nearly 16%) followed by Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith & Fulham, Islington, Merton and Wandsworth, with Redcar & Cleveland the only non-London area on the list.
  • EPI projects sharper falls over the next five years in the capital, with Islington, Lambeth and Southwark down 14–20%, and Islington and Lambeth about 30% lower than a decade earlier by 2028–29.
  • Primary rolls have already declined by about 150,000 since 2019, and the EPI estimates England could have roughly 400,000 fewer pupils by the end of the decade.
  • Closures are underway, with 23 schools shut across the ten worst‑hit councils since 2020–21, including six in Southwark, and modelling suggests a fall equivalent to around 800 single‑form primary schools by 2029.
  • An increasing share of pupils leave London or the state system, with 20% of the 2017–18 reception cohort no longer in the capital by Year 6 and about 10% no longer in state schools, as unions call for funding and place‑planning changes and the DfE notes a national peak expected in 2026/27.