Overview

• Births in 2023 were 20% below London’s 2012 peak, with the steepest declines in inner boroughs after the post‑millennium baby boom faded.
• Primary school numbers have fallen by 150,000 since 2019 and nine of the ten biggest local drops in primary pupils are in London, including nearly 16% in Westminster.
• London Councils forecasts a 3.6% fall in reception pupils over four years, equal to 3,195 places or 117 classes, and EPI projects primary numbers in Islington and Lambeth down about 30% by 2028/29.
• Witnesses linked the slide to gentrification, soaring housing costs and a shrinking social housing stock, noting some family‑sized homes are used as shared houses by young professionals.
• Childcare for 3–4 year olds in inner London averages £184.96 a week for 50 hours, and researchers say later first births and a mobile population reduce the share of residents settling to raise families.