Overview

• The former Goldman Sachs CEO said major crises tend to recur every four to five years and argued the U.S. is now "due."
• He pointed to credit markets as the probable source of the next shock, emphasizing leverage in less-visible corners outside traditional banks.
• High-yield spreads hovered near 2.84% on the ICE BofA index, a historically tight level he views as signaling underpriced risk.
• He highlighted rapid private credit growth, including leveraged insurer exposures, and questioned whether some assets are being fairly valued.
• Despite the caution, he said he is 100% in equities, citing expected Fed rate cuts and AI-driven growth, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ secular bull-market view.