Overview

• Lithuania kicked off Wilder Wolf 2025 on August 11, moving infantry units into Varena district for urban defense drills before shifting to division-level exercises inland.
• Ukraine’s border guard spokesman Colonel Andrii Demchenko says hundreds of Russian soldiers and several dozen pieces of equipment have already arrived in Belarus ahead of mid-September’s Sapad-2025 maneuvers.
• Belarus had pledged to downsize Sapad-2025 and hold it away from NATO borders but late-July signals referenced increased Polish and Lithuanian activities to justify possible relocation reversals.
• NATO allies and Ukrainian authorities fear Sapad-2025 could serve as a staging ground for renewed aggression against Ukraine or even extend to attacks on NATO territory.
• Germany’s Inspector General Carsten Breuer has warned that President Putin may be capable of launching a large-scale war, underscoring alliance concerns over regional security risks.