Lilly's Rally Deepens as U.S. Access Deal Recasts Outlook for GLP‑1 Drugs

A U.S. access deal with capped Medicare costs shifts attention to approvals that would open coverage in 2026.

Overview

Eli Lilly shares have climbed about 27% in a month to roughly $1,022, returning to record territory on strong GLP‑1 momentum and policy tailwinds.
Under a newly disclosed arrangement, Medicare out‑of‑pocket costs would be capped at $50 per month for Zepbound and orforglipron starting April 1, 2026, contingent on FDA approvals, with states able to enable Medicaid access.
LillyDirect self‑pay prices will drop to $299–$449 for Zepbound and $149–$399 for orforglipron following approval, with Emgality, Trulicity, and Mounjaro also offered at 50%–60% below list prices for cash‑pay patients.
TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $960 target and said the pricing deal’s long‑term impact could be relatively modest if greater volumes and adherence offset lower unit prices.
Valuation views diverge as Forbes’ Trefis model outlines a case for $1,330, while Lilly’s GLP‑1 leaders Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to drive double‑digit revenue growth.