Lilly Pulls Ahead in GLP‑1 Market as Novo Confronts U.S. Headwinds

Investor bets plus Lilly's oral pill Foundayo, factory expansion, larger R&D outlays have created a wide valuation gap that leaves Novo's recovery dependent on its pipeline and global reach.

Overview

Lilly reported combined Mounjaro and Zepbound sales of $14.9 billion in Q2 and captured roughly 60% of U.S. obesity prescriptions, fueling the company's recent revenue surge and investor interest.
Novo says it treats nearly five million patients with its obesity products and remains a major global player, but its U.S. Wegovy prescriptions have softened while management cites rising competition and pricing pressure.
Lilly has launched Foundayo, an oral GLP‑1 pill, is expanding manufacturing capacity, and raised R&D spending to about $3.8 billion or 16.6% of Q2 revenue to support product growth and next‑generation work.
Market pricing now values Lilly far above Novo, with reported forward multiples near 24.4x for Lilly versus about 11.8x for Novo, and hedge‑fund holdings have grown much more for Lilly than for Novo.
Key things to watch are U.S. prescription trends, payer coverage and prices, the arrival of oral and next‑generation GLP‑1s, and whether Novo's pipeline and global scale can reverse its U.S. losses and narrow the valuation gap.