Lilly Pulls Ahead in GLP-1 Race as Markets Sharpen Valuation Split

Overview

• Lilly’s injectable GLP-1s Mounjaro and Zepbound drove a rapid surge in revenue, producing $14.9 billion in the most recent quarter and capturing about 60% of U.S. obesity prescriptions.
• The company has broadened its playbook with Foundayo, an oral GLP-1 pill, and is increasing manufacturing capacity and R&D spending to support more dosage forms and future launches.
• Novo still treats nearly five million patients with its obesity medicines globally and is building next-generation and oral candidates, but U.S. Wegovy prescriptions have softened and management has flagged pricing and coverage pressure.
• Investors have sharply repriced the two firms: Lilly trades at a much higher forward multiple than Novo and hedge-fund positions grew far more in Lilly than in Novo, reflecting stronger market confidence in Lilly’s near-term growth.
• The key watch points are whether Lilly can convert current momentum into a durable advantage through scale and product breadth and whether Novo’s pipeline and global reach can reverse its commercial and valuation setback, with payer coverage and manufacturing capacity likely to shape patient access.