Overview

• The study led by Carrie Nugent of Olin College calculates a roughly one-in-156,000 chance of dying from a near-Earth object larger than 140 meters over an average 71-year lifespan.
• Researchers found that asteroid impact risk exceeds the lifetime risk of death from rabies and lightning strikes but remains more than 500 times less likely than fatal car crashes and lower than carbon monoxide poisoning and seasonal influenza.
• The analysis highlights significant uncertainties in impact probability due to variables such as asteroid size, speed, composition and point of impact.
• NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory, is cited as evidence that early detection and deflection strategies can prevent future impacts.
• The paper provides a framework for evaluating the cost and benefits of planetary defense efforts relative to other public health and safety measures.