Overview

• Socialists say they will not back censure this week, leaving opposition motions roughly 20–24 votes short of the 289 needed to topple the government.
• The pause would fix the current thresholds at 62 years 9 months and 170 quarters, convene a social‑partner conference before 2027, affect about 3.5 million people, and cost an estimated €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027 unless offset.
• Matignon says the mechanism is not decided, as ministers float either an amendment to the Social Security financing bill or a standalone law, with the prime minister indicating an amendment in November.
• The 2026 plan pairs roughly €30 billion in savings with about €14 billion in new revenues, including measures targeting high incomes, a frozen income‑tax scale for most, limited pension revaluation, and higher medical co‑pays, with a deficit near 5% next year and a pledge toward 3% by 2029.
• Unions are split—CFDT welcomes the move as a win, CFE‑CGC voices caution, CGT seeks a full block—while employer groups like Medef and U2P warn of fiscal risks, and French 10‑year yields fell as the France–Germany spread narrowed after the announcement.