Overview

• Les Républicains and the UDI said they will not take cabinet posts, offering only case-by-case backing in parliament, while Horizons and MoDem withhold decisions on participation.
• The Socialist Party warns it will censure the new team unless 49.3 is dropped, purchasing power measures are added, and the 2023 pension reform is fully suspended.
• Lecornu is considering a pared-back lineup focused on sovereign portfolios and Finance to accelerate the process, as President Macron’s Egypt trip may complicate a Monday Council of Ministers.
• The budget could closely track the Oct. 2 draft sent to the HCFP, targeting a deficit under 5% of GDP and including state savings, a production tax cut, a levy on family holdings, and a continued surcharge on high incomes.
• The HCFP releases its assessment Monday and the bill must be lodged by Monday or Tuesday to preserve the 70-day review window, with failure triggering a rollover of 2025 credits and a freeze on state spending.