Overview

• After completing party consultations, Sébastien Lecornu told President Emmanuel Macron that an absolute majority in the Assembly opposes dissolution and that a new prime minister could be appointed within 48 hours.
• Lecornu reported a shared willingness across parties to pass a 2026 budget by year’s end, indicating a deficit target around 4.7%–5% of GDP, softer than the deep cuts previously floated.
• The Socialist Party has made suspension of the 2023 pension reform a condition for cooperation, a debate rekindled by ex‑premier Élisabeth Borne as ministers warn the move would add costs in 2026–2027.
• Macron has remained publicly silent as the Élysée signals he would “take responsibility” if talks fail, a phrasing widely read as keeping the option of dissolving the Assembly on the table.
• Economists and officials quantify rising costs from the prolonged crisis, with OFCE estimating up to €15 billion, the economy ministry citing about €12 billion, and Allianz Trade putting dissolution costs near €4 billion, alongside a recent Fitch downgrade.