Overview

• The government froze the planned retirement-age rise from 62 to 64 until after the 2027 presidential election to win Socialist non-support in no-confidence votes.
• Far-right RN and far-left LFI have filed censure motions, while the Socialists and Communists say they will not back them and many Republicans signal the same, leaving Thursday’s votes likely to fail.
• The concession widens the gap in a draft budget seeking roughly €30bn in savings, complicating passage in a hung assembly split between left, right and Macron’s bloc.
• UBS warns the freeze could cost about €400m in 2026 and €1.8bn in 2027 and has advised clients to cut French short-dated bond holdings, citing rising fiscal risks.
• France’s debt is around 113–114% of GDP with a deficit near 5.8–6%, drawing EU scrutiny and raising the prospect of downgrades or penalties as political churn continues after Lecornu’s brief resignation and reappointment.