Overview

• France’s National Assembly opened debate Thursday on no-confidence motions filed by La France Insoumise and the National Rally against the newly reappointed prime minister.
• Lecornu’s plan would postpone raising the retirement age to 64 and keep the 170‑quarter contribution period until early 2029, with estimated costs of €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027.
• Socialists signaled they will largely abstain on censure after winning the suspension pledge, though a few lawmakers may break ranks, while Greens said they will back the motions.
• Conservative Les Républicains are split, but many are not expected to vote for censure, reducing the likelihood of reaching the 288 votes needed to topple the government.
• The right-controlled Senate opposes the suspension, Macron warned he would call early legislative elections if the cabinet falls, and weak growth near 0.7% with a deficit around 5.4% and debt near 115% heightens pressure to pass the 2026 budget.