Overview
- A government-commissioned IGF report published Thursday warns that a prolonged recours to a loi spéciale for 2027 would add roughly €15 billion to the deficit and remove the government’s ability to enact new savings or revenue measures.
- Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu publicly denied specific high-profile cuts to student APL, freezes to RSA or minimum old‑age pensions, changes to the tax credit for personal services, and a rise in income tax.
- Bercy is reported to be studying extending the exceptional surtaxe on large companies as a revenue option, while Economy Minister Roland Lescure has discussed narrower pension indexation changes for wealthier retirees.
- Markets are increasing fiscal pressure: French 10‑year yields have climbed above 4%, raising the state’s debt servicing bill and narrowing the government’s room for manoeuvre.
- With no stable majority in the Assemblée nationale, the executive faces a hard autumn of negotiations and may use tools such as article 49.3 or ordinances, a stalemate that the IGF says would hit defence projects, construction, energy renovation grants and farm supports.