Overview

• The Lebanese government, under President Joseph Aoun, is advancing efforts to establish a state monopoly on weaponry, including disarming Hezbollah through dialogue rather than force.
• Hezbollah has expressed conditional willingness to discuss its arsenal but insists on a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and a halt to Israeli strikes as prerequisites.
• Israel continues near-daily military strikes in Lebanon, citing Hezbollah targets, despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement.
• The United States is pressuring Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah as part of broader stabilization efforts, linking aid and reconstruction to the government’s control over all arms.
• Iran's indirect nuclear negotiations with the US may influence Hezbollah's stance, with analysts suggesting Tehran could leverage Hezbollah’s weapons as a bargaining tool.