Overview
- Project88 released an internal Ministry of Defense assessment titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan,” completed in August 2024, which characterizes the United States as a belligerent power.
- The document says the immediate risk of war is low but urges vigilance against the U.S. creating a pretext for intervention, warning of unconventional warfare and possible large-scale operations exploiting Vietnam’s coastline.
- Planners cite a central concern that external actors could back a “colour revolution” to unseat the Communist Party leadership.
- Analysts say the leak underscores tensions between conservative, military-aligned officials wary of Washington and reformers who advanced the 2023 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
- Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry has not engaged publicly on the leak, while the U.S. State Department declined to comment on the document and emphasized the partnership’s focus on shared prosperity and security.