Overview
- The MRP-style modelling, reported to have circulated within the Conservative Research Department at CCHQ, has alarmed party insiders who called it an "existential threat."
- Projections cited in coverage put Reform on 348 seats with a 46-seat majority, Labour on 161, the Liberal Democrats on 63, and others on 46.
- Stack said the work was produced and paid for by the firm rather than commissioned by any party, after claims it originated inside CCHQ.
- A constituency breakdown suggests only a handful of Conservative MPs would hold on, with Kemi Badenoch and Chris Philp among those forecast to keep their seats.
- Separate Find Out Now polling shows Reform on 32% with the Greens at 17% and both Labour and the Conservatives at 16%, underscoring wider volatility.