Overview

• The unpublished Ministry of Economic Development draft cuts GDP growth to 1% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 from April projections of 2.5% and 2.4%.
• Investment is now seen falling 0.5% in 2026 instead of rising 3%, and production growth is reduced to 1.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.
• Officials attribute the weaker outlook to a high base in recent years and tight monetary policy, according to the reporting.
• External assumptions turn more positive with a 2025 goods trade surplus of $106.9 billion, an average rouble of 86.10 per dollar next year weakening to 92.20 in 2026, and Brent at $70 a barrel.
• Kommersant briefly published the text before removing it, while the Finance Ministry has separately proposed raising VAT from 20% to 22%.