Overview
- A confidential Cornwall Insight report leaked on Saturday concluded the National Energy System Operator (Neso) lacks the modelling tools to track flows from growing numbers of wind farms, solar arrays, batteries, small generators and subsea interconnectors.
- The report projects forecasting uncertainty could reach about 7.7 gigawatts by the end of the decade, a shortfall size comparable to two large nuclear plants.
- An anonymous Neso control-room whistleblower told newspapers operators were 'flying blind' and warned that forecasting failures helped produce five operational safety-constraint breaches on June 23 that left system security compromised.
- Ofgem has opened a formal probe into the June 23 incident while Neso and the government say the system remains reliable and that work is under way to implement the report's recommendations.
- If modelling and visibility do not improve, Neso may need to buy power at short notice through the balancing mechanism which would push up wholesale costs and, in turn, household bills, and the leak has intensified political debate over accountability and probe independence.