Le Pen Leads Polls as RN Presses Attacks on State Institutions

Overview

• Mid‑October polls put Marine Le Pen well ahead for the first round at roughly one‑third of voters and show her winning tested second‑round matchups, giving the RN a clear polling advantage that is reshaping campaign strategy.
• The RN has publicly targeted independent offices and officials, naming the head of the Constitutional Council and the governor of the Banque de France as figures it wants removed or neutralized and signaling readiness to replace civil servants who refuse to implement its program.
• Raphaël Glucksmann’s decisive win in the PS/Place Publique primary has produced a polling surge that reorders the centre‑left and complicates plans for a single right‑centre ticket, with rivals like Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal losing ground.
• A new Ifop survey reports large shares of Muslims, Jews and younger voters say they would consider emigrating if Le Pen wins and that many respondents would refuse to obey laws they deem unjust, raising fears of social unrest and civil disobedience.
• The campaign is also being shaped by reputational and legal flashpoints: Mediapart’s allegations about Jordan Bardella prompted RN denials and a complaint, and the party’s plan to use a contested referendum route to change the constitution has provoked sharp debate over legal limits and institutional neutrality.