Overview
- Large mid‑September polls by Toluna/Harris Interactive and Ipsos‑BVA put Marine Le Pen on about 33–36% of first‑round support, making her the clear front‑runner.
- Jean‑Luc Mélenchon appears as the runner‑up in many tested scenarios and would reach the second round in several of those polls.
- Poll scenario testing shows that a divided centrist field, notably between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, could let Mélenchon into the decisive runoff while a single centrist stepping down would likely set up a Le Pen‑Philippe final.
- Le Pen has kept her lead despite an appeals court upholding a graft conviction in July and her formal campaign launch in September.
- The polls also record unusually high voter pessimism about the economy and public finances, which weakens the centre, raises demand for radical change, and could increase the risk of a highly polarised election outcome.