Overview
- An IFOP poll released Aug. 24–25 showed Marine Le Pen polling 33–35% in first‑round tests and Jean‑Luc Mélenchon at 16–19%, with simulated run‑offs projecting Le Pen would beat Mélenchon by roughly two to one.
- The same late‑August polling found Mélenchon could qualify for the second round in some tested candidate lineups but that centre‑right figures finish ahead of him in other scenarios.
- Le Pen told France’s leading business group MEDEF this week that entrepreneurs have no reason to be alarmed by National Rally proposals as she seeks to calm investor concerns.
- An OpinionWay poll for MEDEF found 82% of business owners feel pessimistic about the next president’s likely economic impact and blue‑chip stocks hit a one‑month low on rising fiscal and political worries.
- Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government must set a 2027 deficit target and submit a budget bill to parliament by Oct. 6, a near‑term test that could shift market sentiment and shape campaign dynamics.